“It is quite interesting, to see the sun wander round the heavens at so to speak the same altitude day and night. I think somehow we are the first to see this curious sight,” Roald Amundsen’s diary, upon arriving at the South Pole in 1911, Roland Huntford, The Last Place on Earth (Scott and Amundsen’s Race to the South Pole)
Climate change, or global warming, is one of the greatest challenges facing humanity. Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are the primary cause of this phenomenon, and the potential destructiveness of these emissions is unparalleled in human history, with the exception of nuclear warfare.
The effects of CO2 on the environment are already being felt. Coral reefs, home to nine million species, are being killed by CO2 absorbed into the oceans. Glaciers in the Andes have been reduced by half in the past 20 years, threatening the water source of 100 million people. Chacaltaya, the world’s highest ski area in Bolivia, is now dry and permanently closed due to the disappearance of its glacier. The Columbia Glacier in Alaska has receded 10 miles in the past 30 years, and the Arctic Ice Sheet is one-third of its thickness from 30 years ago. It is predicted to be completely ice-free within a decade, opening up new opportunities for oil and gas exploration. Global drought conditions caused by climate change are also threatening the world’s food supply. Storms have become increasingly destructive and costly for insurers.
The acceleration of climate change began in the 1980s, when China’s Deng Xiaoping launched the slogan “Enrich yourselves!” This marked the country’s shift to state capitalism and special economic zones of capitalism. Since then, CO2 emissions have been on the rise. China adds one new coal plant and 40,000 new cars per day to the global mix, and its per capita automobile ownership is 175 per thousand, compared to 812 per thousand in the United States. China overtook the US as the largest auto market in 2010.
The speed of climate change is unprecedented, and its effects are becoming increasingly visible. CO2 continues to be emitted into the atmosphere and oceans, and the process of potential self-destruction is accelerating. Antarctica has been less affected than other regions so far, but caution must be exercised. Climate change is unpredictable and its consequences could be devastating.
The Big Kahuna
Antarctica is the world’s most extreme continent, boasting six months of total darkness and six months of continuous daylight. It is the coldest, driest, and windiest of the seven continents, and has the highest average elevation. It is a desert with annual precipitation of only 8 inches along the coastlines, and much less inland. Covering an area of 5.4 million square miles – the size of the United States plus Mexico combined – temperatures can reach as low as -129°F, with an average summer temperature of 20°F and an average winter temperature of -30°F.
The continent is covered by a sheet of ice one-to-two miles thick, with a drill core of 9,396 feet (nearly two miles deep) recovered ice that is estimated to be 530,000 years old. Antarctica is a key factor in the climate change equation, and the potential for rising sea levels. Scientists have agreed that the past century’s warming has had a significant impact on the great ice sheets, with the potential for a sea level rise of more than 200 feet if the ice sheets were to completely melt over centuries. Even a tenth of that would have catastrophic impacts on coastal areas.
Recent studies have shown that Antarctica is melting from its underside due to warm ocean currents, and that losses from Greenland and West Antarctica have been accelerating due to warmer seawater melting the underside of the glaciers’ floating ice shelves. The National Academy of Sciences estimates that sea levels could rise by 1.3 feet to 4.6 feet by 2100, however, scientific research over the decades has cast doubt on any predictions due to the rapid rate of climate change. This trend is of great concern as it threatens nine million species with extinction, and could have catastrophic impacts on coastal areas.
Skeptics Claim Antarctica is Gaining Ice
Skeptics have long argued that Antarctica is gaining ice, rather than losing it. However, this argument often ignores the distinction between land ice and sea ice. While sea ice may be growing due to stratospheric cooling and changing climate conditions, the scientific consensus is that Antarctica is losing land ice overall, and this loss is accelerating. It is land ice, not sea ice, which affects sea levels. Therefore, skeptics should take a holistic approach to the issue, rather than relying on snapshots of sea ice behaviour.
When Antarctica was Green- CO2 levels were relatively close to today’s levels
A study led by Alan Buis of the Jet Propulsion Lab, Pasadena, Robert Perkins of the University of Southern California, and Zac Lemoine of Louisiana State University, in conjunction with NASA, has revealed that the climate of Antarctica 15-20 million years ago was much warmer and wetter than previously thought. Temperatures of up to 45 degrees Fahrenheit were recorded during the Miocene Period, and carbon dioxide levels of 400-600 parts per million were estimated. These levels are on track to be reached by the end of the 21st century, and if history is a guide, it is time to consider the elimination of fossil fuels. The implications of this are immense, with the potential for a revival of Kevin Costner’s 1995 film Waterworld, as the world is faced with the prospect of a watery future.
The Solution: 100% Renewable Power
Fossil fuels, including oil, natural gas and coal, currently account for 84% of all energy consumed worldwide. However, according to Mark Jacobson, Senior Fellow of the Woods Institute for the Environment at Stanford University, and Dr. Mark Delucchi of the Institution of Transportation Studies at the University of California/Davis, the timeline for the conversion from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources, such as hydroelectric, wind, solar, wave, geothermal, biomass and waste, can be dramatically accelerated. The pair claim that the entire conversion could be achieved within one-to-two generations, or 20-40 years, rather than the 70 years predicted by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Jacobson and Delucchi’s plan calls for wind and solar energy to contribute 90% of electricity, with 10% from other sources such as hydro. Vehicles, ships and trains would be powered by electricity and hydrogen fuel cells, while aircraft would use liquid hydrogen. The researchers believe that the variability of wind and solar power can be managed by creating a Super Grid with long-distance transmission and precise computer-generated management.
A Zogby Analytics Poll from November 15th, 2012 found that renewables received twice the support as fossil fuels among all voters surveyed across party lines. This was reflected in the November election, where all senators who opposed the Keystone Pipeline won their races. Furthermore, 65% of respondents said that political leaders must act now in order to address future climate problems.
The technology is available, and the public will is solid. The only missing component is political leadership.
