Trump: Rising From the GOP’s Ashes

Donald Trump’s candidacy has been the subject of much debate in recent months. While some laud his “straight talk” and attribute his frontrunner status to it, others point to anger or racism the Trump Brand Name has tapped into. However, the underlying cause of the Republican Party’s problems may be deeper than Trump himself. Leon Festinger, Henry Riecken, and Stanley Schachter’s 1956 work, “When Prophecy Fails: A Social and Psychological Study of a Modern Group That Predicted the Destruction of the World,” provides insight into the issue. The authors observed a phenomenon known as “cognitive dissonance,” where true believers double down on their beliefs in the face of disconfirmation. In the case of the Seekers, a doomsday cult, they found that the followers justified their beliefs by claiming they had prayed and stopped the flood which was to wipe out humanity. Trump’s candidacy may be a symptom of this same phenomenon, where the Republican Party’s true believers are attempting to justify their beliefs in the face of disconfirmation.

When George W. Bush was sworn in with a Republican majority in the House and Senate, the Heritage Foundation assessed that the Bush Tax Cuts would “effectively pay off the federal debt, reduce the federal surplus by $1.4 trillion, substantially increase family income, save the entire Social Security surplus, increase personal savings, and create more job opportunities.” Despite these promises, the Bush Administration implemented tax cuts and two major wars in two countries, with the expectation of being welcomed as liberators. 

Compassionate conservatism and supply-side economics failed to live up to their expectations, leaving the Republican Party in disarray. According to cognitive dissonance theory, some devotees left the party, while the true believers doubled down, leading to the emergence of the Tea Party. This uprising blamed the economic downturn on Obama, rather than the failed policies of the Bush years. 

Sarah Palin and Donald Trump are the two faces of this movement. Palin was the 2008 GOP It Girl, while Trump is the male version of this phenomenon. Both have become walking—or in Trump’s case, escalator-riding—media flame wars, and Trump is currently polling higher than any of the other 634 Republican candidates for president in this cycle. Trump is a manifestation of the Republican Party’s attempt to double down on their failed policies and justify their failures. Trump will not ruin the party; rather, he is rising from its ruins.

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