The Most Important Race in America: Why Republicans think Gov. Scott Walker’s re-election matters most

Gov. Scott Walker, Wisconsin’s incumbent Republican, is displaying resilience in the face of a tough statewide contest. Despite the Real Clear Politics polling average showing Walker with a 2.2 percentage point lead over Democratic nominee Mary Burke, the latest data from Public Policy Polling has him up by just one point, within the margin of error. Walker was seen on a portable stage in the parking lot of a strip mall in front of the Eau Claire GOP field office, between a Curves and an Office Products Co. store. This election is much closer than expected, with a recent Marquette University poll showing him with a seven-point lead, though it is not taken seriously.

The Wisconsin governor’s race is one of the most closely watched in the country. According to conversations with top Republicans and conservative activists, the outcome of the election is of utmost importance. Governor Walker is highly regarded by national conservatives for his willingness to take on the state’s powerful public sector unions. He has been depicted as a hero in the National Review and the American Spectator has already declared that if he wins on Tuesday, he would be a strong candidate for the 2016 presidential election. Walker is the rare Republican who is not polarizing for the right, unlike some of the other potential Republican presidential nominees. The impact of the election on public policy is so important to some Republicans that a win for the Democrats would be a major blow, even if the Republicans win the Senate. Phil Kerpen, who runs the fiscal conservative advocacy organization American Commitment, stated that “if Scott Walker loses, it’s a bad election cycle even if there are big wins everywhere else, because the impact on public policy will be more negative than any political upside elsewhere.”Winning statewide as a conservative Republican in Wisconsin is no easy feat. Despite the fact that five of its eight congressional representatives are Republicans and the GOP holds the majority in the statehouse, Wisconsin remains a predominantly blue state. Historically, it has been a union stronghold and has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1984. This makes the GOP’s tenuous grasp on state government all the more galling to progressives.

In spite of this, Governor Scott Walker has not shied away from his conservative agenda. He was victorious in the 2010 gubernatorial race by a margin of 5.8 points, and in February 2011, he proposed Act 10, which drastically reduced public sector unions’ collective bargaining power, prohibited unions from collecting dues from members’ paychecks without their consent, and increased health insurance and pension contributions from government workers. Additionally, the act included a number of other changes.

Progressives reacted swiftly to the news of the bill proposed by Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker. Activists set up camp in the Capitol building, Democratic state legislators left the state in an effort to prevent a vote, and national progressives accused conservatives of a “Republican jihad”. Despite these efforts, Walker signed the bill on March 11.

Unions and their supporters continued to fight the bill, taking it to court and losing, attempting to vote out a conservative state Supreme Court justice and failing, and trying to recall 10 Republican state Senators, of which seven were unsuccessful. In 2012, they attempted to recall Walker and were defeated by 6.8 points. Republicans also forced three recall elections for Democratic state senators, all of which were won by the Democrats.

Walker and his Wisconsin allies have endured a great number of difficult electoral battles. However, polling suggests that the upcoming gubernatorial race on Tuesday is the Democrats’ best chance to remove Walker from office.

The stakes of Tuesday’s election in Wisconsin are high, with potential national implications. If Governor Scott Walker is defeated, it could send a warning to Republican governors across the country that taking on unions and pushing for conservative policy overhauls can be politically costly. At a campaign rally in Eau Claire, Rep. Sean Duffy cautioned that a Walker loss would mean “every principled conservative leader” would be discouraged from standing up for their people and balancing their budget. Governor Walker himself spoke out against “Washington-based special interests” and suggested that they fear the Wisconsin results could be repeated elsewhere. If the Republicans win the Senate but Walker loses, what will Tuesday night look like for the national party?Reince Priebus, chairman of the Republican National Committee, spoke after a rally in Wisconsin, expressing his concern for the future of the state and the party. He stated that Governor Walker represents the future of both, and that the success of his re-election bid will be indicative of whether or not those who make and keep promises are rewarded.

The RNC’s messaging has been focused on the accomplishments of Republican governors, in contrast to the current Obama administration. States such as Wisconsin and Texas have been held up as examples of how things can be done differently with a Republican in charge. If Walker were to lose, it could be seen as a warning to other Republican governors considering similar policy changes.

John Kerpen, a conservative commentator, believes that if unions are able to stop Walker and his reforms, it could have a ripple effect across the country. Patrick Gleason, director of state affairs at Americans for Tax Reform, echoed this sentiment, saying that a Walker loss would be a warning to other governors, while a win would encourage them to take a stronger stance.

Conservatives have expressed alarm over the prosecutorial zeal with which Republican governors, potential 2016 presidential contenders, have been targeted. Governors Rick Perry, Chris Christie and Scott Walker have all faced legal challenges that conservatives have deemed to be politically motivated. Should Walker lose, they fear that such “lawfare” will be more broadly employed.

However, the atmosphere at a Walker rally in Eau Claire this weekend was one of optimism. Congressman Sean Duffy proclaimed to the crowd, “Wisconsin is gonna save America!” Although, for that to happen, Walker must first be re-elected.

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