Recent reports from the Arctic have alarmed scientists, with the Union of Concerned Scientists discussing the severity of the situation. Global warming is worsening at an alarming rate, with temperatures setting monthly records. This has caused widespread concern, with the Pope, scientists, and parties to the Conference of the Parties (COP) taking action. The COP is a forum for climate change, where thousands of climate diplomats discuss how to hold the average global temperature increase below 2°C, relative to pre-industrial temperatures. This is a difficult task, as 1.5°C can cause significant problems in the climate.
The commitments made at COP21 to reduce global CO2 emissions are essential to prevent ecosystem collapse. If these commitments are not met, the world could face famine and war, as global warming disrupts the biosphere, scorching agricultural land. This has already been seen in Syria, where a drought from 2007 to 2011 drove 1.5 million farmers off their land. It is now more important than ever that these commitments are met to prevent further catastrophic consequences.
Recent research has revealed worrying news from both the eastern Mediterranean and the Arctic. A NASA study has found that the drought in the Levant region, which includes Cyprus, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine, Syria, and Turkey, is the worst of the past nine centuries. This is likely due to global warming.
In the Arctic, a 40-day mission led by Dr. Igor Semiletov of Tomsk Polytechnic University to the Laptev Sea has revealed severe degradation of the underwater permafrost. Dr. Semiletov previously estimated that the East Siberian Shelf is one of the world’s most active and dangerous sources of methane release into the atmosphere. This could have a significant impact on the climate.
This year’s expedition has revealed a worrying increase in methane release compared to previous expeditions in the same area between 2011 and 2014. Scientists are unsure of the exact amount of methane stored in the permafrost, but have observed large plumes of the gas being released into the atmosphere. The implications of this for life on Earth are severe, yet it is impossible to predict when runaway global warming will hit.
Five years ago, Dr. Semiletov commented on the findings of the expedition, saying: “We found more than 100 fountains each of more than a kilometer across. These are methane fields on a scale not seen before. The emissions went directly into the atmosphere. This is the first time that we’ve found continuous, powerful, and impressive seeping structures more than 1,000 meters in diameter.”
The potential for runaway global warming is becoming increasingly likely, especially as the Arctic ice cap continues to melt. If this happens, it could lead to a dystopian future similar to that portrayed in the 1979 film Mad Max, with societal collapse, feuds, and vengeance. It is a frightening prospect, and one that must be avoided at all costs.
For thousands of years, thick multi-year Arctic ice has prevented the release of frozen methane into the atmosphere. However, recent years have seen a dramatic decline in the thickness of the Arctic ice, which reflects up to 90% of incoming solar radiation back into outer space. It is now well established that human-caused emissions of carbon dioxide are responsible for the severe Arctic meltdown.
Just a decade ago, the Arctic was covered with substantial multi-year ice, up to 10-25 feet thick. Now, solar radiation has a direct path to the permafrost and is able to heat up the frozen methane trapped beneath the ice since the last Ice Age. Methane is a much more powerful greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide and its release could accelerate global warming significantly.
The Arctic is currently experiencing a polar night, with temperatures rarely rising above freezing and averaging -30° F until the light returns in spring. However, temperatures across much of the Arctic are currently 36 degrees F above normal and large areas are above freezing. Sea ice extent is also in decline, making this an unprecedented event.
The Union of Concerned Scientists have made a startling statement that the Arctic conditions are “unheard of”, akin to a 105 mph fastball whizzing across the plate in the World Series. Global sea ice extent is plummeting to levels never seen before, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado, Boulder, Co. This is particularly concerning considering it is November, a time when the Arctic should be frozen. The NSDIC has reported that the Arctic is in a “nose dive unprecedented in recent record keeping”. These record-breaking conditions are leaving experts in shock and awe.
Myron Ebell, one of the world’s most prominent and vocal climate change deniers, has been appointed to lead the Trump transition of the Environmental Protection Agency, the agency responsible for implementing the nation’s leading plan for curbing global warming pollution, the Clean Power Plan. In addition, Steven Groves of the Heritage Foundation has been appointed to lead the president-elect’s State Department transition. Last week, Groves wrote an article advocating a speedy withdrawal from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, which could have a devastating effect on the Paris Climate Agreement, the agreement that stands between us and catastrophic warming. These appointments have been met with concern from the Union of Concerned Scientists.
Scientists remain uncertain of when runaway global warming (RGW) will hit civilization, but the paleoclimate record provides evidence of a severe case from 55 million years ago. At that time, global temperatures rose by 5°C within 13 years, and the CO2 in the atmosphere was 1,000 ppm. This rapid increase in temperature was unprecedented and would be catastrophic even if the current rate of temperature rise were to be less severe.
In the Paris Climate Agreement, 195 nations agreed to attempt to hold global temperatures to 2°C above pre-industrial levels. However, this goal is difficult to guarantee, and the effects of global warming are already becoming apparent. The influx of drought-stricken migrants in the eastern Mediterranean and the rapid melting of the Arctic are just two examples of the consequences of climate change. Despite this, the planet has yet to reach the 2°C marker, indicating that the effects of global warming are likely to become more severe.
