The most important economic variable is income growth by state, including job and wage growth, hours worked and the quality of the jobs being created in the two years leading up to an election.
The latest forecast puts 16 states, which includes Washington, D.C., firmly in Democratic territory, with 11 more leaning in that direction for a total of 332 electoral votes.
“It’s important to once again note that the model’s projections are solely a reflection of economic and political conditions upon the incumbent party, and do not take any aspects of the individual candidates into account,” said Dan White, a Moody’s economist who compiles the monthly model.
“Given the unusual nature of the 2016 election cycle to date, it is possible that voters will react to changing economic and political conditions differently than they have in past election cycles, placing some risk in the model outcome,” White said.
Low gas prices and President Obama’s rising popularity are bolstering #Hillary ClintonHillary Rodham ClintonTrump says he will release medical records Trump: ‘I don’t know’ if birther attacks hurt image with black voters Trump to call for end of military sequestration MORE’s chances of winning the White House, according to a closely followed economic election model from Moody’s Analytics.