The infamous Daily Tracking Polls the media treat as Gospel, are missing several chapters. From Gallup to Zogby these polls are of ‘likely’ voters in the upcoming election. A ‘likely’ voter is defined as someone having voted in the last two Presidential elections.
That means the youngest possible poll participant voted in his/her first election in the first week of November, 2000. If you were born by 01 November 1982, you’re in. If, on the other hand your birthday fell like mine does two weeks later, then your 1st election was in 2004 and you were almost 21.
So for polling purposes, the youngest participants that would fit the last two elections criteria to be included in polling are between 26 and 29 years of age.
Where are the thousands of young Obama supporters flocking to campuses for three years? Where are the millions of people re-energised, invigorated and/or recently brought into the process by the dynamic Senator? Local and university level registration campaign of Senator Obama, just doesn’t count.
Too, these polls are conducted via telephone, usually in the evening, meaning the vast majority of people ‘on the Go’ or the millions on the ‘Do Not Call’ (under penalty of death) telemarketing lists are also excluded. Cell phones don’t count. So if you are a landline, suburban and urban resident between 30 and 65 and home in the afternoon/evening when these polls are conducted, you are the statistical dead heat and make up the bulk the poll participants.
We’ve seen a perfect storm of voter dissatisfaction, poor economy, record budget deficits, a disgraced and disgraceful incumbent, unpopular war(s) and partisan gridlock motivate scores of voters. We’ve seen a candidate generate a new level of enthusiasm not seen ever before. This candidate has mastered the Internet, reinvented social networking, raise almost a half billion dollars from more than 2 million donors and has a field organisation with offices in 57 states and territories second to none against a traditional Republican who has not even opened offices in every state. The Democrats Abroad group will register almost 200,000 Americans living in foreign lands for absentee ballots.
No matter where you look, the sleek Obama machine uses technology and targeted marketing to stay on message and get out the vote. When they say 18-states are in play, I believe them.
The same hi-tech system GIS (Geographic Information Systems) used by Bill and Melinda Gates’ foundation to target funding need… targets and assigns workers and aides based on social, economic and environmental challenges. Indeed the Obama campaign advertised in February of this year for a specialist in this field, to help them target volunteer mobilisation efforts.
This is unlike any campaign, ever. Howard Dean discovered the Internet as fund raising tool and perfected it. Using polling methodology from the 1980s is not likely to give one a proper result.
High turnout favours Obama because he has motivated millions and you can rip the projection sheets up as well. The 18-targeted states will create a landslide victory, especially if the Republicans keep shooting themselves in the foot.
