UPDATED By Denis Campbell

(Republican Scott Brown wins 52%-47% with 70% turnout on a snowy day. Losing sucks, message heard?)

Martha Coakley will squeak to a narrow victory later in today’s Massachusetts special election, even though a media fire storm and feeding frenzy is under way for the contested Senate seat held for 47-years until his death last fall by Ted Kennedy. Pollsters, pundits, Tea Party activists and right wing media all froth at the mouth for an upset of the liberal lion of the Senate’s seat. The Right already proclaims it a referendum against ObamaCare (healthcare reform) and a complete repudiation of President Obama’s 1st year in office (more on that tomorrow).

Martha Coakley has run a dreadfully bad campaign. She managed to take a 31-point lead when she was nominated and fritter it away to a now theoretical toss-up. In doing so she forgot the one main rule of Massachusetts politics. All politics is retail and every voter in MA expects you to shake their hand and ask for their vote.

I know because I grew up in and spent 24-years of my life in that state. Even in elections where Teddy walked away with 70% of the ballots cast, he never took a single one of those votes for granted and always ran as if he was trailing. That is why he was able to turn back a surging Mitt Romney in his last election. Union members came out en masse to support him for all he had done over the years for them.

Coakley on the other hand has let Brown define her. Something you almost never can recover from. She did not do retail grab and grins, was not there at the factories or doing the hard grunt political work. She, like everyone else in the Democratic Party, thought it this was a divine right of passage and no Republican could ever really challenge for Teddy’s seat.

Her opponent Scott Brown was not considered a serious contender by his own party, ran a smart grass roots campaign, was seen as a man of the people, shunned the Republican political machinery (only former NY Mayor Rudy Giuliani campaigned on Sunday with him) and no one else was invited. The result, he is an “outsider” in a “throw all the bums out” anti-incumbent election year.

Here’s why Coakley though will still likely capture a razor-thin victory.

• Republican Scott Brown is a disaster waiting to happen. The former nude model and tea party activist, his past and present have caught up with him as he spouts regular Bush-like gaffes. He has run a closing days campaign reminiscent of Sarah Palin in ’08, frothing up the base and terrifying moderate voters. The question is can they forgive Martha? Probably and it will be that close.
• Brown also was caught on tape making unveiled rape references to Martha Coakley, suggesting violence is OK against political opponents and suggesting Barack Obama was born out of wedlock (untrue, but when has fact ever mattered to the Right?).
• The Democratic machine is angry that Obama drifted to the cetre but he had to to govern. They also understand putting control of the 60th Senate seat in the hands of the Republicans means the death of healthcare reform. Voters are angry but smart.
• Teddy’s union army will show up, late. They wanted to put a scare into Martha and succeeded. The love of Teddy is never to be taken for granted and must be earned by his replacement.
• Massachusetts is probably the most educated of the 50 states in the union. There are 122 colleges and universities in the Bay State and that affects and covers a large area. Its 351 cities and towns, despite being angry, will get the vote out. They understand the stakes.

It all should make for an interesting day in the Bay State/Commonwealth.

UK Progressive predicts a 3 point Coakley win (down from our earlier projection of 5 because she has so badly taken voters for granted). We’ll see.