Tim Russert and his lo-tech dry erase white board will not be with us this election night. Chuck Todd, NBC political director, master of polls and fairly well grounded prognosticator has a cool new toy from MSNBC’s partners at Microsoft. It rivals the cool touch screen Anderson Cooper plays with over at CNN.
The problem, even with the new toys for these boys, how much of this is truly a close election and how much is manufactured to make it look close and thus ensure everyone stays tuned in for 57 days? The polls say the election is a dead heat.
The election depends on who wins Virginia, Ohio, Colorado and New Hampshire. These four states are so unpredictable they cannot even be classified as “leaning” towards one candidate or another. Oddly enough three of the four are traditional GOP stronghold states but have moved decidedly Democratic in the last four years.
Then there is the so-called second four of Nevada, Michigan, New Mexico and Wisconsin. They are also too close to call and also have leaned Republican in the last election.
Add in perennial hot-spots Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania… newcomers North Carolina, Montana… Obama’s massive victory in South Carolina and weaknesses in Missouri and Obama’s eighteen state strategy starts to makes sense.
So after 22 months we will sit on election night and ponder the imponderable.
- New Hampshire’s motto is “Live Free or Die.” A state that has survived for decades without an income tax or sales tax, its southern cities are home to many a Massachusetts tax refugee and it is Belgium to The Netherlands. NO one tells it how to vote or what to do.
- Colorado is part of the new west. South Colorado is very Republican with the Air Force Academy and military installations all the way to the border with New Mexico whilst the north is liberal Denver and Boulder, the counter culture nirvana city time forgot.
- Virginia was a lock for McCain but has a Democratic Governor who was almost the Democrats VP choice. The northern suburbs that border Washington DC skew much more liberal whilst the genteel south is a Republican stronghold.
- Ohio is an enigma. Voting for Bush in ’04 despite huge problems, it will figure largely in the new calculus as jobs and the poor economy, dominate there.
It is easy to classify the races as urban vs. rural, white vs. black but the party make-up has shifted.
We’ll see where it ends up and if Sarah Palin survives the scrutiny and arrogance of her own party. By holding her away from the media they are setting her up for failure on a grand scale.
Now the MSM are demanding access and soon the strategy will be torpedoed. Also they cannot have both candidates together on the road for the next 57 days. They will lose too much ground.
One thing for sure, Chuck and Anderson will get to play with their toys for two fn months then, like most kids, move on to other ones.
