by Denis Campbell

Every week I compile and send out a talking points bulletin for newsrooms across the UK and EU. Since so much is happening this past week, here it is for the Post.

So 9-days out and the rats are jumping off the McCain ship. Expect to see the Rick Davis/Steve Schmidt camps at each other’s throats this week playing the blame game… Here we go!

- US 51 poll closing times 04 November… expect CNN, FOX and MSNBC.com to make announcements as the clock strikes each hour. That has been their practice throughout the primaries.

• 23:00 GMT (6:00 PM EST): Indiana, Kentucky 
• 00:00 Midnight (7:00) : Georgia, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia 
• 00:30 (7:30): Ohio, West Virginia 
• 01:00 (8:00): Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee 
• 01:30 (8:30): Arkansas, North Carolina
• 02:00 (9:00): Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, Wyoming 
• 03:00 (10:00): Iowa, Montana, Nevada, North Dakota, Utah 
• 04:00 (11:00): California, Hawaii, Idaho, Oregon, Washington 
• 05:00 (12:00): Alaska

The Big Ten Speak
A Powerhouse US football conference in the middle of Middle America, these are crucial battleground states most look at when contemplating the “L” (Landslide) Word… 

• Illinois (Obama’s base state) Indiana (Bush won by 21 points in 2004), Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are ALL solidly in the Obama camp.
• Indiana, Ohio and Iowa voted for George Bush in 2004 

o Illinois
 Obama 61%, McCain 32%

o Indiana
 Obama 51%, McCain 42%

o Iowa
 Obama 52%, McCain 39%

o Michigan
 Obama 58%, McCain 36%

o Minnesota
 Obama 57%, McCain 38%

o Ohio
 Obama 53%, McCain 41%

o Pennsylvania
 Obama 52%, McCain 42%

o Wisconsin
 Obama 53%, McCain 42%

Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday
Obama 52%, McCain 44%.
Matches Obama’s biggest lead of the year. 

fivethirtyeight.com
where a large group of polls are run through massively complex mathematical formulas, regressions, equations and weighting every day:

Electoral Votes
Obama 348.4
McCain 189.6

Popular Vote
Obama 52.0%
McCain 46.5%

Senate Seats
Dems 56.6
Reps  41.4
Ind   2.0

National polls are a beauty contest.
Below are three scenarios using the NPR.org state simulation software map. Red states are Republican, blue Democrat.

This is the conservative estimate, Obama and McCain hold their leads in core states and polls are ignored and toss-ups stay toss-ups and tie. He wins by three electoral votes if those leaning his way stay there.

This is what happens if the states Obama is leading in go his way, I call this the likely landslide 375 Electoral Vote map.

 This is the Republican nightmare scenario 426 vote map because my sources show campaign internal polls have him doing so well on the ground and picking up states such as Montana, North and South Dakota and winning John McCain’s home state thus validating the 18-swing state strategy of August: 

 Remember, this is what it looked like in 2004:

 And the media still trying to make it a horse race say this is the final outcome for McCain to win:

Of course he has to hold a lot of states to win…

You decide…

Conflicting Polls:

So many of them it is just too funny…

• The RealClearPolitics avg 5 to 7 point lead for Obama
• Some polls give Obama a 14-point lead
• Gallup showed race to be dead even
• Associated Press-GfK poll shows McCain and Obama 44-43 percent
• Three weeks ago, an AP-GfK found Obama seven-point leader

So who do we believe?

Fox News/Rasmussen (very conservative/right wing):

• Obama leads McCain 49 to 40 percent among likely voters
• 88% of Democrats support Obama
• 83% of Republicans back McCain
• Independents break 44 to 35 percent in Obama’s favour.
• White Catholics support Obama 50 to 39 percent
• New voters back Obama by 51 percent to 40 percent.

John Zogby
Previously said Obama “hasn’t closed the deal,” now talking an Obama landslide
These numbers, if they hold, are blowout numbers. 
They fit the 1980 model with Reagan’s victory over Carter
If Obama wins like this we can be talking not only victory but realignment: 

• o Leads by 27 points among Independents
• o 27 points among those who have already voted
• o 16 among newly registered voters, 
• o 31 among Hispanics, 
• o 93%-2% among African Americans, 
• o 16 among women, 
• o 27 among those 18-29, 
• o 5 among 30-49 year olds, 
• o 8 among 50-64s, 
• o 4 among those over 65, 
• o 25 among Moderates, 
• o 12 among Catholics (which is better than Bill Clinton’s 10-point victory among Catholics in 1996).
• o He leads with men by 2 points, 
• o is down among whites by only 6 points, 
• o down 2 in armed forces households, 
• o 3 among investors, and 

o is tied among NASCAR fans!!!

John Stewart’s take last night on pundits cut very close to the bone.
In a brilliant segment entitled “Who the F@#k is That Guy?” he shows just how far pundits come out of the woodwork in the USA this time of year. 

Ouch… Watch here and be kind… I do enjoy working with you. 

See you next week!