London is all a Twitter as President Obama arrived here three hours ago, walked to the base of the Air Force One staircase then levitated across the tarmac to the amazement of startled onlookers, his red cape flowing beneath his 50,000 watt smile.
OK, I mean the BBC providing a live feed was a bit much as he greeted The Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling, his wife and the US Chargé before helicoptering 30 miles from Stansted Airport downtown to the vacant US Ambassador’s residence to sleep and prepare for his meetings tomorrow with British PM Gordon Brown and tea with Her Majesty.
The G-20 summit is the centrepiece of this 48-hour visit and what a set of characters there will be here this week. If one is planning to visit London, or traverse across the city, best to make alternative plans until Friday as 20 heads of state, their entourages and protestors will create a traffic nightmare.
President Obama may not be anxious to say hello to Spain’s PM Zapatero as his government is now doing what the US Government is reluctant to do, investigating past top Bush officials for war crimes related to torture. The Spanish legal system has some experience in this having brought Chilean dictator Pinochet to justice after he was arrested in London visit a hospital for surgery and extradited to Spain for trial. Of course Pinochet was not guarded by the well armed US Secret Service and it is important to note that President Bush’s coverage expires on 20 January 2019, so you never know…
It will though be an interesting summit for the new American President.
- Most Americans have little clue what the G-20 is about, why they are meeting or its significance. The focus is, as always, on themselves, loss of jobs, lack of consumer demand, tight credit, home foreclosures and tent cities springing up everywhere (Bushvilles replacing 1930s Hoovervilles).
- President Obama has a tough trip facing him and most of the financial crisis will be waiting for his return. After the G-20 summit he attends a NATO summit on Friday, flies to the Czech Republic on Saturday (not a very friendly place these days worried about Russian threatened response to the missile shield), is on to Ankara Sunday (1st Muslim nation stop) and Istanbul Monday before flying back to Washington Tuesday.
- George Soros in the Sunday Times predicted a global Depression if the G-20 Summit is unsuccessful. While that scenario is unlikely, he is known for betting against markets and so has a vested interest in failure. He made $1B on stock crash since September.
- American businesses are not brimming with confidence. The furore over AIG bonuses (disguising the real issue of $4.7 trillion in credit default swaps ticking away) and yesterday’s firing of GM Chairman Wagoner have everyone nervous. The predominant Capitol Hill philosophy is: since I don’t understand the swaps let’s go after the bonuses?!?
- There is also a growing feeling of class warfare in the USA and fear amongst the wealthy, most of whom had a free ride for a very long time. They now feel Obama is targeting anyone making $250K+ but a new Washington Post/ABC News poll released yesterday shows 66% support for the new president and 60% for his handling of the economy with a tripling of those who feels he is moving in the right direction. A colleague complained today, “he is just like Jimmy Carter was to business.”
- I’m in regular contact with Janis Sharp whose son faces extradition to USA over hacking into Pentagon computers. The issue could bubble while he is here. She is hoping for similar assurances from Obama/Brown that he will not be extradited, rather stand trial here in the UK.
- Gordon Brown needs to ‘save the world’ to save his re-election chances next year at home.
- UK, France and Germany are ‘feeling their oats’ and likely to challenge Obama on his desire they provide bigger stimulus packages.
- China and Russia feel snubbed by the agenda and China is making lots of alternate currency trading deals for the Yuan (Columbia for about $10 billion dollars worth) outside their traditional US dollar safe haven. Could that spell real trouble if they don’t buy US debt. It is MAD (mutually assured destruction) if they don’t. However, their economy is now hurting from lack of demand.
- This summit will also be an anarchist wonderland this week as anti-free traders plan Seattle style events.
- The Mexican drug cartel wars on the US border are destabilising the government there and becoming a global issue as they are the demand curve for these drugs.
- Obama wants everyone to step up in Afghanistan, not many willing to do much more.
- Let’s hope ‘gift-gate’ is not repeated with the Brown’s, you can bet the DVDs this time will be from the correct region! This President learns from his mistakes!
- And Michelle Obama’s international fashion watch alert for the gossip pages is on full alert. She looked very sharp in the yellow number she deplaned in! I am sure all eyes will be watching at State events.
Like I said to friends at the BBC, the circus is in town. One giant ring at the Excel Convention centre containing 20 leaders and their wives, wining, dining and whining.
Should be great fun to watch… at home, on the telly!
