by Clive Betts and Cambria Politico

For the Liberal Democrats, the European votes looked a disaster, and one must wonder whether the party has much future in Wales, writes Clive Betts from the National Assembly press gallery.

Before the poll, the party was confident about winning the fourth seat; in the event, the Lib Dems came 14,000 votes short, and it went to UKIP.

And worse than that, in the Westminster constituency returns [available from the Pembrokeshire County Council website] the party usually came fifth.

In only six seats was a decent vote scored – in Cardiff Central, where the party came first;  the party was second in  Ceredigion, Brecon and Radnor, Swansea West and Newport East; while it managed third place in Montgomery.

One of the first questions from the press was whether it was time to ditch Lembit Opik in Montgomery before he got ditched by the electors.

In both Powys seats, the sitting Lib Dems were resoundingly passed by the Tories.

Kirsty Williams, the party leader and sitting AM for Brecon, was taking the briefing. Her argument was simple – her party consistently under-polls at European elections in Powys.

She refrained from saying why that might be. But it is simply because the large hill farming electorates of those two areas are strongly anti-European – that might seem strange as it is farming subsidies from Europe which help keep those farmers in business. But that it is how it is.

The Lib Dems are probably the party which is best at comparing the different results that can be produced by elections for Brussels, Cardiff and London.

Montgomery is the obvious problem constituency. The party clearly believes Lembit Opik, the MP, is at risk over his antics (with both cheeky girls and with asteroids). “He is the right candidate,” Ms Williams proclaimed. Which is rather different from  expecting him to win.

She then added, “The Welsh party will be doing everything they can to get him elected.” This presumably means drafting in workers from the plenty of constituencies in Wales and in border counties of England where a win cannot be expected.

When similar doubts were declared by the press about Ceredigion – where Plaid scored almost twice as many votes as the Lib Dems in the Euro-poll – Ms Williams put on her lively-lady act. Whatever figures the press could produce, Ms Williams had others. And those figures were far more convincing. At least, they convinced her.

Compared with the Euro-election five years ago, Lib Dem support in Ceredigion had risen substantially, we were told.

Afterwards, Peter Black, the regional AM for South West, weighed in. He forecast that Mark Williams, the MP who unexpectedly snatched the seat from Plaid at the last London election, would go back with a greatly-enhanced majority.

This line strongly contrasts with what Plaid says – in particular Elin Jones, the AM. But the Lib Dems refuse to give way. They talk of the strong support on the doorstep that was during the Euro-election willingly given to Mr Williams.

Really, there is only one constituency where the party polled well – Cardiff Central, where the sitting AM strongly challenged Ms Williams to succeed Mike German. But youth won out over age and experience.

Ms Williams fought her leadership election on the need to “change the way in which we organise the party”. Yet the only person who clearly had organised her party successfully was Mrs Randerson.

But the Lib Dems possess two very different base-roots in Wales. There is the rural base – and that is where Ms Williams admitted she had been temped to pay the candidacy fee for her cash-strapped would-be UKIP candidate in Brecon. That was because he would be sure to take votes from the feared Tory challenger.

The second base is the urban one represented by Mrs Randerson. That base is achieved through the archetypical Focus newsletters delivered each month to every elector, focussing on local problems, and, of course, the possible Lib Dem answer.

In Cardiff, Focus eventually won the city council. The same is on its way both in Swansea (with Mr Black the leader) and, more slowly, in Newport.

Ms Williams declared she was “very buoyed up” by the Welsh results. The party had out-performed the parties in both England and Scotland (as the Welsh votes increase was by only 0.2 per cent, rising to 10.7 per cent, compared with 21.2 per cent for the Tories, the Welsh leaders), she really didn’t have much to boast about.

Ms Williams said she was “disappointed” not to have won the party’s first seat.

In the way that things are going, perhaps she should be more concerned about the possibility of losing the party’s last seat – which will probably be in Cardiff Central.  Although, on current showing, Ms Williams would have had to become old and experienced.

Their surnames are the same, you see.

Reprinted with permission of Cambria Politico under joint content sharing agreement.