Memo to Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili: just because Mr. Putin looks comfortable sitting and waving at the Olympic Opening ceremonies, don’t assume he is not paying attention. Whatever you do sir, don’t mess with the Big Dog.
Your attempt to assert authority over your own land thinking the bored guy sitting next to him wondering when the 4-hour long opening ceremony would end and whether or not it was OK to remove his jacket is not the man you want backing you. (Just ask Afghanistan and Iraq how much they love what he’s done to the place they used to call home.)
George Bush on his Asian farewell tour managed to vex his Chinese hosts by bringing up human rights before his arrival. Their response was to flick him like an insect that mistakenly landed on their lapel with a “shut up” even more effective than MSNBC’s Keith Olbermann’s because he had no where to go to even contemplate a reply.
When W and Vlad sat together chatting about Georgia, the President told him it would be unwise to invade. Vlad as in fomrer President and now Russian PM Vladimir Putin shook his head in assent and… did it anyways. Bush waited until he got home to protest most vigorously from the White House lawn. Wow, talk about being a lame duck.
President Saakashvili decided that while the Russian leader was away, the mouse would play and take back the part of their country under the control of and loyal to Mother Russia.
Putin became vexed.
Ossetia was bombed back to the stone age and troops streamed toward the capital of Tbilisi as a reminder of who really was in charge. It was classic ‘The Godfather’ behaviour, where Vito Corleone authorises Tom Hagen to kill the racing stallion and place the horse’s head in the film producer’s bed. Message received, problem solved.
Now Vlad wants Mikheil out and he will likely get his wish in the coming weeks because Georgian troops are outnumbered many times over and the slaughter would mean complete Russian control of Georgia.
Saakashvili was a bit naïve in assuming the US and NATO (who have discussed possible membership for Georgia), would rush to protect a non-member state beyond seeking sanctions at the UN.
So the game was over before it started. The Russians chose the Sean Connery “Untouchables” approach where the great actor said in character, “they put one of yours in the hospital, you put one of theirs in the morgue!”
Unfortunately when elephants fight, it’s the ants who get killed. So while there is a shaky peace, one has to wonder when “the troubles” will again flair up.
A bit of unsolicited advice Mr. Saakashvili? I’d go on holiday for a few months now. Perhaps Mr. Putin will soon forget you.
