By Denis Campbell

Only party leaders and media pundits seem to care that 27-member countries of the European Union head to the polls Thursday through Sunday of this week to vote for the entire 736-member European Parliament. The UK and indeed Europe faces the lowest recognition election in the history of voting. “Election, what election, there’s an election this week?” seems the rallying cry.

So what if you held an election and no one cared? Well not exactly no one but when one looks at the 34% turnout the Europe-wide turnout for the last one in 2004, it’s not exactly topic one on most minds. And when they go to the polls how much of the motivation will be concern over Europe issues or backlash from the MP expenses row?

Here in Wales, 2004 participation shot up by almost 68% (from 626K voters in 1999 to 918K in 2004) due largely to successful anti-Europe campaigns scaring all sides to the polls. Even then though only 41% of the Welsh electorate cast a vote and whilst the threat still exists for marginalised parties to gain, the general “be very afraid” campaign is not attracting much attention. The European election was story number four on BBC’s Sunday morning The Politics Show behind the continuing death by 1,000 cuts that is the MP expenses row, growing losses at the Royal Mail and a huge jewel theft in Cannes.

To put this election in some perspective, when the traditionally largest UK-wide 3rd party the Lib Dems gather their standard 10% of the vote and are beaten by the very far left UKIP (UK Independence Party), it sends shivers up and down established party spines at the real and symbolic cost of these elections. 

Hate and fear in election rhetoric always works and UKIP and BNP (British National Party) have brought out the worst in themselves and all parties. As usual, turnout will be key to Thursday’s contest. With the Labour Party in disarray under embattled PM Gordon Brown, many in the press want to view this as a preview of the election that must happen by May of 2010 when Labour’s current 5-year term expires. 

“Not sure I agree with you 100% on your police work there, Lou” (from the film Fargo) but it does make for interesting headlines. And what is the price of those headlines when US Presidential Press Secretary Robert Gibbs dismissed UK Press reports on Gitmo detainees this week. What happens when such a gaping divide exists between reality and perception on this election and UK politics in general?

Wales lost a seat when new Eastern Europe member states joined and has had four elected members since 2004 when Plaid’s Eurig Wynn seat was eliminated. While stoking outrage by saying the election could be considered a referendum on 12-years of Labour power, MP expense excess and what role the UK and Wales should have in the Union, locally it is also a referendum on the Welsh Party, Plaid Cymru, the national party of Wales, whose leader will soon step down as First Minister for Wales.

Taxation and Representation?
While billed as the only Europe-wide body elected by “the people of Europe,” the EU Parliament is somewhat akin to the United Nations’ General Assembly. Similar in terms of its size, scope and real power, it can (but rarely does) make lots of noise and is filled with pomp and very little circumstance. 

The truth about this “Union” is that nothing of substance happens EU-wide without the two real policy making bodies (the Council of Ministers and European Commission) creating or signing off, so these are largely ceremonial posts in the EU’s two headquarters (Brussels and Strasbourg – don’t ask) the eyes of many. To further confuse, traditional party affiliation in member countries disappears into an amalgam of presiding parties in the European Parliament. So if you are in Labour in the UK, you are likely to end up in PES or Party of European Socialists, UEN, Greens or any one of seven parties or independent.

Even then the problem becomes getting member states and their national parliaments to behave and accept/ratify whatever change does glacier-ly come (see the unified currency debate – the euro is still not used in half of member states including this one). 

Even if the Parliament were to exercise its muscle and control, the new members of the EU, even if they voted as a bloc as in the annual Eurovision song festival would not amount to much of challenge since the big five (Germany, France, Italy, UK and Spain) control 53% of the seats. Obama has his “team of rivals” cabinet. These five nation states rarely agree and often 1 or 2 band together just to embarrass the others.

But, like the US Democratic Party’s attempt to control 60-Senate seats, it is great theatre and while we don’t have a European Sarah Palin or ‘Joe the Plumber,’ UKIP and BNP leaders provide as much theatre and outrage in the UK and Welsh blogosphere. 

The danger in this EU election is the continued growth of radical far left (some would say anarchist) parties winning seats. Even then 1 seat out of 700+ is more symbol than real power but the fear adverts are here aplenty. 

US Senator Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania recently changed his party affiliation because he was worried about fringe candidates in a sparsely attended Republican primary would show him the door after 29 years. It almost happened to Joe Lieberman of Connecticut (who won the general election as an Independent). Here it’s one shot and you’re out. 

Three of the four current longest serving Welsh members are not standing in this election. Glenys Kinnock, Eluned Morgan, Jonathan Evans and Jill Evans have served since 1999 and are not exactly household names. Only Evans is standing for a third European term, so, in theory, it’s a wide open fight and (yawn) the tension is building.

So (yawn) we’re going to the polls Thursday. Less than half of those eligible to vote will and we’re all just so worked up and excited… z-z-z-z-z-z-z.