by Denis Campbell
I regularly provide the UK MSM with US election talking points and many get picked up. This weekend and today saw a huge string to share with readers here. The impact of what we have been saying all along about Obama’s devastating ground game, polling samples of ‘likely voters’ excluding anyone younger than 26-29 misses Obama’s youth vote (they must have voted in two elections) and missing 16% cell phone only households in the mix mean badly skewed numbers in these polls which should be even stronger towards Obama.
The last debate (Thank God!) is Wednesday overnight 15-16 October here in the UK.
• There has been a stunning Electoral Vote turnaround in one month…
From: Electoral-vote.com (270 EVs required to win…)
(Sunday, September 14th) Obama 268 – McCain 270
(Tuesday, October 14th) Obama 357 – McCain 181
Others:
Election Projection: Obama 364-174
Electoral-Vote.com: Obama 349, McCain 174, 15 tied
Fivethirtyeight.com: Obama 347.6-190.4 McCain (the most reliable formulae)
Pollster.com: Obama 320, McCain 158, Toss-up 60
Real Clear Politics (A Republican site!): Obama 277, McCain 158, Toss-up 103
• Tomorrow night, expect McCain to come out swinging with Ayers and Obama’s 60s radical connections. Not likely to land but he is very desperate in this, his last chance…
• Red state North Carolina has had the following voter registration trend:
WOW! 245,000 new Democrats vs. 46,000 new Republicans since 01 May or a 5:1 ratio! (Source: fivethirtyeight.com)
• Obama HQ to announce September fundraising figures tomorrow, all my campaign sources say they have shattered the $66 million figure for August (a previously unthinkable US record for only one month) and will come close to $100 million dollars raised last month!
• Sarah Palin has energized the Democratic base more than the Republican base. The new donations are from women and men aghast that she could sit one heartbeat away from the Presidency.
• Weekend newspaper endorsements Obama 15/McCain 2
• Obama is trying to run out the clock, look Presidential and avoid surprises.
• More state by state polls (because that is how this battle will be fought). Interesting to note in these Washington Post numbers they are doing everything to keep this a race for the last two weeks…
Obama +13.8%: Battleground state (PA)
Obama +10.4%: Battleground state (NH)
Obama +10.0%: Battleground state (NJ)
Obama +9.5%: Battleground state (IA)
Obama +9.0%: Battleground state (OR)
Obama +8.2%: Battleground state (MN)
Obama +8.2%: Battleground state (MI)
Obama +8.8%: Battleground state (WI)
Obama +7.3%: Battleground state (NM)
McCain +6.8%: Leaning Republican (GA)
Obama +5.1%: Battleground state (VA)
Obama +4.0%: Battleground state (CO)
McCain +3.8%: Leaning Republican (IN)
Obama +3.5%: Battleground state (OH)
Obama +3.1%: Battleground state (FL)
Obama +3.0%: Battleground state (NV)
McCain +2.2%: Leaning Republican (WV)
See it? Every state in which McCain has a lead, even if it’s just 2.2%, is a “leaning Republican” state. Every state in which Obama has the lead, even if it’s over 10 percent, it’s a “battleground state”. After 20-months, they want a close race…
• Key Red (Republican states) are within the margin of error… West Virginia(!) at only 2.2%, Indiana 3.5%, Georgia 6.8% are huge shocks. No Democrat has won a red state in the new South since before 1964 when Lyndon Johnson signed the Voting Rights Act.
• Iowa, New Mexico, Virginia all voted for Bush and are now for Obama.
• The “slash and burn his character” strategy has failed miserably as cries of ‘KILL HIM’ and ‘TERRORIST’ uttered by angry far right wing base at Palin and McCain rallies (now dubbed McPalin) have further alienated Independents and firmed support for Senator Obama.
• McCain twice had to pull his supporters back in this weekend one for saying he could not trust Obama the terrorist and the other calling him an Arab. Why he has not done this sooner and more forcefully is beyond most to understand.
• FOX News’ far right pundit, Sean Hannity ran a supposedly revealing documentary on Obama last night. 3 million watched. Not a word about it so far in the MSM.
• In Minnesota, Norm Coleman, Republican incumbent Senator stopped his barrage of character attacks against his Democratic challenger Al Franken (former Saturday Night Live writer and star) leading in that race.
• Going negative used to work wonders, now with the seriousness of issues and candidates and their overall positive qualities (vs. the lesser of two evils) it is perceived as negative. The entire race is upside down this year with the one going negative being penalized.
• A few pundits talked this weekend about the Bradley factor. Black Los Angeles mayor Tom Bradley who ran for Governor and polls showed him ahead by 17% and he lost the election because folks said they would vote for him but in the privacy of the ballot box, they could not get over his race.
• It’s as if the Palin issue never happened on Friday night. The mixed verdict from the Alaskan Legislative committee found she did abuse her power as Governor, however as executive, said she had the right to hire and fire people. (Think they wanted to avoid a lawsuit.) What is notable is that the campaign tries to dismiss it whilst not mentioning there were 10 Republicans and 4 Democrats on the committee.
