The Democrat Primary local heads this weekend to a crucial (yawn) convention by-laws committee meeting that seems certain to have the thrill and impact of a wet firecracker vs. Hillary’s much feared nuclear option of three weeks ago. The Michigan and Florida delegations will be seated but with a 50% penalty and the delegates split almost 50-50 between the two candidates.

Action will then shift to tropical Puerto Rico for Sunday’s (salsa?) last dance for Hillary where she will win another primary by 10% or less and we will listen to her claim an historical (or is it hysterical?) victory and own one last day of the news cycle before South Dakota and Montana put Barack Obama over-the-top, the super-delegates rush to join the Obama bandwagon and our long national 18-month nightmare ends in time for a five-month general election sprint to the finish line.

It will then be up to Queen Hillary to see if there remains a gracious bone in her body and how sincere she really is when urging her delegates to vote Democratic or whether she ends up as John McCain’s running mate in November (anything is possible). 24-months of being prom queen (not to mention putting her foot in her mouth with the RFK remark), make it difficult to go back to being just the junior Senator from New York in the bottom third of Senate seniority ranks.

She’s close to $30 million dollars in debt and the clock is ticking. She must clear it before 03 August or she loses the $20 million dollars+ she and Bill invested in waging this campaign.

What went so wrong for her?

1. Bill was not Muzzled and Wandered off the Reservation.
From his remark in South Carolina injecting race into the campaign and comparing Obama to Jesse Jackson and his more radical approach, Billary tried to paint Obama as a quaint Iowa “bounce” phenomenon. This angered the black community and America’s first black President’s wife thumped her 95%-5% and WVOAs (White Voters Outside Appalachia) began to think this guy was pretty good.

2. Super Tuesday was the Beginning Rather than the end.
Hillary expected a coronation party in her home state on February 5th as she became the nominee and did not plan beyond those key contests. Lack of field organisation, foresight and planning led to expensive last minute, catch-up efforts everywhere.

3. Michigan and Florida called Howard Dean and the Party’s Bluff.
Don’t do that. He did not blink. They tried in 2004 when then DNC chairman Terry McAuliffe (now running Hillary’s campaign) said anyone breaking the rules would lose 50% of their delegates and risk not being seated at the convention. They did not believe Dean would do it, jumped the queue and now are begging with Hillary shrill-ly calling for them to be seated (because she won without campaigning and even went against her own statement last fall saying the primaries won’t count).

4. Mark Penn is a Big Fat Idiot
With apologies to Rush Limbaugh, he just ran a dumb campaign with lots of traditional advert buys and consultant hangers-on using page after page from Karl Rove’s fear based campaign playbook with the “3 am” advert. As voters got to know Barack Obama, the fear subsided and Hillary looked more shrill and desperate. Working for questionable clients whilst running the Clinton campaign, led to his ouster. Barack Obama will not be a big hurry to raise money owed the Penn smear machine.

5. Hillary played bad card after bad card
When the race card did not work she, through her minions, tried the feminist/women card. At the end of the day, the only group she carries overwhelmingly are women over 50. This group could run to McCain but the general election campaign is likely to expose this one trick pony (a likeable but doddering maverick war hero) as the old-style Republican campaign hack he truly is. If this were poker, she would be playing with another player’s chips. There has not been one moment where her bluffs have worked and the chip leader Obama has played a shrewd tight-aggressive game protecting his chip stack and forging ahead when needed.

What went right for chip leader Obama?

1. He Tapped into the Nation’s Weariness
What with war in Iraq, the Bush and Clinton family feeling the Presidency a birth right, the prospect of 24 to perhaps 40 unbroken years of the country controlled by two political familial dynasties (Chelsea is already being groomed on the trail and youngest Bush brother sibling Jeb still lurking in the wings after 8 years in Tallahassee), it was too much for many to handle. Daily a new story emerges about how we were rushed to a war that will never end and this in turn hurts McCain and the Republicans.

2. Rock Star Appeal
When uber-conservative Rupert Murdoch calls him a “rock star” who he would like to meet, that is news. Obama energised America’s youth for the first time since JFK. I had Jimmy Carter vs. Gerald Ford when in University (yawn). Obama drew arena sized crowds everywhere that often involved entire families. He also gave memorable speeches that remain hits on YouTube. We saw the real Obama in South Carolina and speaking about race in Philadelphia. Brave, bold and articulate, America gravitated (finally!) towards someone who was thoughtful and articulate vs. the current 1-line sound byte sloganeers running the White House.

3. The Internet
$300 million raised an average of $96, one person at a time broke the Federal Election Commission’s computers. He is beholden to no one single special interest group and this model could lead to other candidates in the future shunning big buck corporate fat-cat lobbyists. If one truly wants change in Washington, that is good news.

4. 50-States Boots on the Ground
Grass roots candidates need boots on the ground. His 50-state organisation is what many call a juggernaut for the fall. The 1-million phone call campaign was more than quaint, it was an impressive show of just how many people he can muster to help in October and November.

5. Change and Hope are Powerful Messages
And he stayed on message, looking more Presidential for it. He avoided the lure of going negative against Hillary and let her shoot herself. Staying on message is very powerful and he was called all kinds of names, elitist, out of touch, etc. yet showed he could take a punch and come back even stronger.

(*Bonus*) Michelle knew when to Shut Up
Unlike Bill, Michelle Obama is a strong woman who knows when to speak and when to remain silent. Barack, not she is the candidate and story. They worked much better together (and apart) than Billary. She never wandered off the reservation and even as a national political rookie, remained a strong, articulate black woman. In a nation where, unfortunately, many black family units lack males, she was refreshingly real and bested America’s first “black” president by a long shot. Hers was the real straight talk express, rolled out when needed.

All of this bodes well for the fall and real change in Washington.