Arctic temps warmer than Miami? We have a serious methane problem!

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has largely overlooked the potential risks of an ice-free Arctic, according to Professor Peter Wadhams of Cambridge University. Despite the potential for a methane outbreak, the IPCC has failed to address the issue in their assessment. 

The world has largely welcomed the idea of an ice-free Arctic, with the potential for new shipping routes, cruise lines, and access to fossil fuels. However, the opening of this region could also release methane that has been trapped since the last Ice Age. The implications of this are far-reaching and could have devastating consequences. 

In June 2015, Professor Wadhams was invited to speak at a meeting of the Pontifical Academy of Sciences, hosted by the Vatican. It is likely that his words are still ringing in their ears, as the potential risks of an ice-free Arctic are too great to ignore.

Status of Arctic Sea Ice & Why it Matters

Professor Peter Wadhams of the University of Cambridge recently gave a candid interview on the rapid decline of Arctic sea ice, warning of a potential catastrophic methane outbreak. In his words, “Our time is running out”. 

Wadhams has observed a 50% reduction in ice thickness over the past 30 years, with the summer months now resembling a “blue planet”, almost entirely ice-free. This has allowed the water to warm up, melting underwater permafrost which had been frozen since the last Ice Age and releasing methane. 

The professor believes the East Siberian Sea is a “lurking monster”, with the effects of a methane outbreak comparable to an asteroid collision. He estimates the probability of this occurring at 50%, and reports that field scientists are already seeing large plumes of methane in the summer. 

The volume of ice in the summer is now only a quarter of what it was in the 1980s, and Wadhams believes it could disappear completely within the next couple of years. He warns that “it’s not a low probability, high catastrophic risk. It’s a high catastrophic, high probability risk.”

Impact of Ice-Free Arctic

As the Arctic continues to undergo drastic changes, the effects are being felt around the world. The disappearance of ice in the Arctic is causing warmer air masses to move over Greenland in the summer, leading to a faster melting of the Greenland ice sheet and, in turn, a greater sea level rise than initially predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In fact, some glaciologists are now suggesting that the sea level rise could reach up to 16 feet by the end of this century. Furthermore, the lack of reflective ice in the Arctic is causing global warming to accelerate faster than expected, with temperatures potentially reaching as high as 5°C by the end of this century. This could have catastrophic impacts on agricultural production, and may even lead to some areas, such as Miami, having to be completely abandoned.

What to do?

The challenge of preventing offshore methane release and the subsequent global warming is an immense one. While some have proposed bringing back Arctic sea ice, this would require cooling the entire planet, an unrealistic goal. Modification of the fracking method used in oil and gas drilling by utilizing offshore platforms along the Arctic coastline has been suggested, but no research has been done on this. The forces of inertia are so great that it is difficult to make changes to our current society, which is heavily reliant on fossil fuels. It is essential to take action now, before the effects of global warming become too severe to reverse.

Timing of the Worse Case

As the effects of climate change become increasingly apparent, the need to reduce carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere is becoming ever more pressing. Professor Wadhams has argued that, to avoid a catastrophic outcome, drastic measures must be taken to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. This cannot be achieved through reducing emissions alone, and a concerted international effort akin to the Manhattan Project is needed to develop the necessary technologies. With just ten years left to avert disaster, the urgency of the situation cannot be overstated.

Current Arctic Weather Conditions

The Arctic is experiencing a heatwave, with temperatures as high as 37.1°C (98.78°F) recorded on July 2, 2015 in East Siberia, well within the Arctic Circle. This is significantly higher than the 36°C (96.8°F) recorded near the Kolyma River on July 1, 2015. In comparison, temperatures in Miami have not exceeded 34°C (93.2°F). The heatwave has caused huge melting of sea ice in the waters off the coast of Siberia, and the warming of the waters where the sea ice is already gone. These waters are less than 50 m (164 ft.) deep, meaning that the warming can quickly extend all the way down to the seabed, which can contain enormous amounts of methane in the form of free gas and hydrates. This heatwave has been largely overlooked by the media, which instead has focused on the heatwaves in populous countries such as India, Pakistan, the U.S., Spain and France. The Arctic is facing a unique and unprecedented challenge, and it is essential that the world is made aware of this.

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