Abrupt Climate Change, Already?

Scientists are increasingly concerned about the risks of abrupt climate change, which could render the planet nearly uninhabitable within current lifetimes. Studies and polls show that the American public is alarmingly unconcerned about the issue, with global warming ranking near the bottom of their priorities. 

If these scientists are correct, the U.S. Congress may be too late to take meaningful action. Abrupt climate change has been known to occur within decades, not over hundreds of years. Paul Beckwith, Laboratory for Paleoclimatology and Climatology, University of Ottawa, has observed that the planet’s temperature has risen by 5C or 6C within one or two decades in the past. 

The most immediate risk of further abrupt climate change hinges on how well the Arctic withstands global warming. As the Arctic loses ice mass, it releases more and more methane, which is more powerful at trapping heat than carbon dioxide. If enough methane is released, the planet could heat up rapidly, leading to flooding of coastal cities, droughts, severe storms, and extreme heat throughout the mid latitudes, resulting in panic, illness, and death. The world could become chaotic. 

It is clear that the American public must take the potential risks of abrupt climate change seriously and press their political establishment for appropriate action. The future of the planet depends on it.

Scientists are deeply divided on the issue of abrupt climate change, with few predicting an upsurge in the near future. However, those with first-hand knowledge of the situation, or “boots on the ground”, are sounding the loudest alarms. John Nissen, Chairman of the Arctic Methane Emergency Group, has expressed concern about the rate of melt of the Arctic and the attendant plumes of methane, particularly in the East Siberian Ice Shelf. Natalia Shakhova, who leads the Russia-U.S. Methane Study at the International Arctic Research Center, believes only a tiny percentage of the methane buried in Arctic ice is necessary to double current atmospheric CH4. She suspects an outburst of 50 gigatons could happen at any time, potentially causing a disaster beyond repair. 

Paul Beckwith, an advocate, researcher, and member of AMEG, co-founded by Peter Wadhams, professor of Ocean Physics, University of Cambridge, believes the only solution is to slash emissions, cool the Arctic, and employ geoengineering techniques such as solar radiation management, sea salt spraying, and carbon capture. However, these techniques have yet to be proven effective on a planetary scale, and there is no consensus in the world community to test them. 

The urgency of the situation is clear: if we lose the ice caps, civilization starves and the world’s coastal cities drown. Governments must therefore initiate conversions from fossil fuels to renewables now, in order to rescue future generations from the potential of a global warming nightmare.

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