It’s Voter Demographics and Maths (Stupid)!

This is The Monday Line
by Denis G. Campbell

Former President Bill Clinton and President Obama played a private round of golf Sunday afternoon at Andrews Air Force base. That was the most encouraging fiscal cliff news of last week. If I were running the Republican House caucus? That news would scare me to death.

Not only did Bubba Clinton put a straight talk express smack-down on Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan on the campaign trail, he is now advising the President on how best to leverage this victory for the future? The Democrat to serve two terms as President with a hostile House yet cemented a huge jobs growth legacy is now helping President Obama build his second term agenda?

Couple that with what Brent Budowsky said in this space on Saturday, a newly minted spine inside of President Obama that allowed him to adopt a new ‘The Godfather’ movie approach to negotiations, “here is what I offer in return, nothing.” This could end very badly for House and Senate Republicans.

For many progressives, the reply is, “it’s about time.” Andy Borowitz’s biting Sunday satire in The New Yorker magazine had John Boehner ‘crying’ that the President is behaving like he won a huge victory instead of just kow-towing to their demands. They have very serious troubles in the GOP House caucus.

And as Republicans fight for re-election in 2014 and beyond, they face a steep uphill climb. With one of the least productive Congresses in history almost in the books, John Boehner’s legacy as House Speaker is in serious doubt.

There is an electorate demanding they clean up their mess, work together to solve the nation’s problems AND they now face a President who used old fashioned hard work, research, demographics, targeting and messaging to win all but one swing state in a convincing re-election victory? And this President is opening the vaults of his math nerd, hi-tech operation to help Democratic colleagues pile on in future elections when Republican Party operatives running the Romney campaign used strategies from the Reagan era?

Be afraid. Be very afraid Republican Party.

The Future is Now!
The Democratic brain trust is already spending time on global issues, confident the electorate becomes more diverse by the day while the GOP clings to an old, ‘white men only except hand-picked token women, black and Hispanics we can control’ strategy? There will be blood. It will be messy and the GOP is headed down a slope so slippery, they will not know what hit them until it does… just like in the last election.

I was invited back on to the itv programme Sharpend for the 1st time in the show’s history in successive weeks partly because I predicted a very large victory for President Obama whilst US and global media were calling it a knife’s edge election. I actually predicted a huge victory here on 19 December 2011. While Obama won fewer the total EVs than predicted 11 months before, the factors at work all had to do with electorate Demographics and simple mathematics vs. blustering opinion sharing.

Most GOP pundits predicted a Romney victory up to the last week because they were sure voter obstruction and vote machine control would win the day along with a sense of misplaced optimism via their corporate media organ, FOX News. Our story on vote machine fraud uncovered by real mathematicians took care of the latter, whilst voter anger took care of the former.

No one was going to deny anyone in Florida their right to cast a vote.

The Math of Money
The networks saw a potential windfall of $3+ billion dollars on adverts and when I started my countdown sheet on the 26th of May, there were 3,912 hours of cable news to fill and loads of commercial time to sell. There is no competitive narrative unless and until you create one! So it was east to see there was ONLY ONE meme – Romney: the comeback kid!

The only surprising aspect of this campaign was the Evangelical Christian Right’s acceptance of Mitt Romney’s Mormon religion which all of them labelled a cult.

The other math equations? The electorate was younger and more diverse than in 2008. Hispanic voters grew by huge percentages and almost three of four of them voted for the President. 9.97 of 10 blacks voted for the President and ditto 70% of all single women.

And 40% of Governor Romney’s white male vote? It went for the President too. You can deny science but elections are counted by votes and mathematics declares actual winners and losers.

The Polls Were Biased and other Fairy Tales
The most stunning aspect of the campaign was the continued GOP assertion that polls and, in particular Nate Silver of The New York Times 538 blog, were biased.

Math is not biased and it does not lie.

Silver was an aggregator who looked at all polls and then came up with probabilities based on them as well as other factors such as demographics and past voting history. He then declared statistical probabilities of winning based on crunching the data.

The GOP tried desperately to discredit him and failed. When he won by his predictions being 100% correct on election night, math, like climate science in the wake of super-storm Sandy suddenly had validity and veracity.

But the best news from the campaign effort? The Obama campaign revealed it did not commission or conduct a single national tracking poll during the entire campaign. They instead focused all efforts on the eleven swing states, extensively polling there and working to refine every e-mail message and funding request. Indeed the most successful e-mail headline? ‘Hey…’ And you only get there through hard work and research.

The Obama campaign showed the election world how important targeting, testing and hard work are. Millions of dollars on adverts helped and, Team Obama spent 4-5x less per advert meaning they got more for their dollar than the GOP.

So not only did the GOP lose the election, they did so with incredible fiscally irresponsible arrogance and waste. If I were, say… the head of a casino company who gave say… $40 million dollars to run an election and say… I ran my casino business the way these so-called experts did? I’d be out of business. And wasn’t Romney the fiscally responsible turnaround business man?

Well he at least had the sense to shut off campaign staff credit cards on election night, before people who gave him 18-months of their lives could do something really bad like take a late night losing taxi cab ride home.

You cannot make this stuff up.

Denis G Campbell View more

Denis G Campbell
Denis G. Campbell is founder and editor of UK Progressive magazine and co-host of The Three Muckrakers podcast. He is the author of 7 books and provides Americas, EU and Middle Eastern commentary to the BBC, itv, Al Jazeera English, CNN, CRI, MSNBC and others. He is CEO of Monknash Media and a principal with B2E Consulting in London. You can follow him on Twitter @UKProgressive and on Facebook.

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